🔗 Share this article

A mere eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the team's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win any of their first six matches, now sit only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.

Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?

It remains an exceptionally difficult proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they have not been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have accumulated.

According to statistical analysis, twice all season has the side had an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a team that have put together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.

The Rogers Recipe

The prevailing tactic appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus United.

The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled right inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United registered more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner indefinitely.

A Case for Belief

Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.

• Ollie Watkins might resume scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho may rediscover the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as an essential Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.